Is the market trending or going sideways?

The three parameter sets used are (ATR period / multiplier): 10/1, 11/2, 12/3 - called ST1, ST2 and ST3 on this site, from fastest to slowest. Each day, each set produces a directional signal - uptrend or downtrend. When all three agree, the consensus is +3 (strong uptrend) or -3 (strong downtrend). When two of three agree, the result is +2 or -2. A mixed state within a confirmed phase is counted as a compression day, not a new phase.

A phase change is only confirmed when the opposite direction (full 3:0 consensus) appears for three consecutive trading days. A mixed day or a reversion to the original direction resets the confirmation counter. The new phase is backdated to the first day of the reversal streak, not the confirmation day. This reduces false signals from short-lived reversals.

The state is read from the middle line (ST2) and the slow line (ST3); the fast line is ignored. Both green: uptrend. The support level is the lower of the two lines. Both red: downtrend. The resistance level is the higher of the two lines. One green, one red: choppy - price sits between the lines and there is no trend to commit to. A level is unchanged while it stays within 1 ATR(12) of today's value; it does not matter which of the two lines carries it, and up to 3 days without such a level do not end the count. From 15 unchanged trading days on the level is flat. Sideways = flat support or resistance level. The day count runs across sideways and choppy days together, because both mean no trend. Uptrend = support level rising, downtrend = resistance level falling. The outcome table measures the next 20 trading days from each day's close.

Every day belongs to one of three phases: uptrend, no trend (sideways or choppy) or downtrend. A flat level is recognised after 15 days but the phase counts from its first day. A phase shorter than 3 days is counted as part of the phase before it. For a phase that is N days old today, the site takes all completed phases of the same kind that lasted at least N days and reports how many more days they ran: the median, the middle half (25% to 75%), and for phases without a trend the share that ended in an uptrend or a downtrend. The first phase of each symbol is left out because it starts with the data. The index cards use the phases of the four index ETFs together; the symbol search uses the symbol's own history.

For each symbol, all completed phases in the available price history are analyzed (the year table starts in 2000). The first phase of a symbol is left out of the universe statistics because it starts with the data and not with a signal. Phase Progress is calculated as: current phase length / historical average phase length (same direction, last 10 years) × 100. This normalizes across symbols with different typical phase durations and makes cross-symbol comparisons meaningful.

It is a market state page, not a signal service. It reads from three Supertrend lines whether an index, sector, theme or stock is in an uptrend, going sideways, choppy or in a downtrend, and compares the current phase with history: how much longer did similar phases last, and how did they end? The author uses it to decide how defensively or aggressively to trade, not when to buy or sell.

The Supertrend consensus combines three parameter sets (ATR period / multiplier: 10/1, 11/2, 12/3) into a daily direction score. A score of +3 means all three are bullish, -3 means all three are bearish. Scores of +2 or -2 indicate a majority direction with one parameter dissenting - these mixed states often appear during compression or trend transitions.

Across our full universe of 230 symbols, completed bullish phases average 42.5 trading days (median: 32.0 days, range: 3 to 364 days, based on 19243 phases). Individual symbol statistics vary significantly - use the symbol search to see exact historical data for any tracked stock or ETF.

Downtrend phases across the full universe average 31.9 trading days (median: 25.0 days, range: 3 to 263 days, based on 19133 phases). As with bullish phases, individual stock behavior differs meaningfully from the universe average.

Compression counts the days inside a phase on which the three Supertrend lines disagree (+2 or -2 instead of full +3 or -3). This typically happens when price moves back and forth and the fast line keeps changing sides while the slower ones hold. Compression % shows what fraction of the current phase has been spent in this range-bound state. A symbol can show Strong Uptrend (+3) today while having spent most of its phase range-bound - this means the breakout is recent or fragile. The Compression tab lists all range-bound symbols sorted by Comp%, helping identify which symbols are consolidating and which have clean, sustained trends. Compression is not the same as a flat support level: all three lines can agree while the line under the price has stopped moving - that case is measured separately.

Phase Progress compares the current phase duration to the historical average phase duration for the same symbol and direction (based on the last 10 years). A progress of 100% means the current phase has already lasted as long as the typical phase for that symbol. Values above 150% indicate a historically extended move - not a reversal signal, but a quantitative measure of how unusual the current duration is.

These labels reflect Phase Progress: Early = below 50% of the historical average, Normal = 50-100%, Mature = 100-150%, Extended = above 150%. They help identify where a trend sits within the typical lifespan of a phase for that specific symbol - providing context that a simple bullish/bearish label does not.

The Sector Score is the average Supertrend consensus value across all symbols in a sector. Each symbol contributes its current score (+3, +2, -2, or -3) to the sector average. A Sector Score above +2 indicates strong broad participation, while scores near zero suggest a mixed or transitioning sector.

It names the trend state that at least half of the members share: Trending up, Trending down or No trend (sideways or choppy). If no state reaches half, the label is Mixed. The four percentage columns show the split behind it.

End-of-day price data is collected after midnight UTC following US market close. All Supertrend values, phase calculations, and statistics are then recalculated and the site is rebuilt automatically. The last full update was completed on 2026-10-24 at 05:50 UTC.

The site tracks a curated universe of 230 US stocks and ETFs - deliberately focused on liquid, actively traded symbols with sufficient price history for statistically meaningful analysis. This universe is reviewed periodically and updated as needed.

Each symbol is classified daily into one of five lifecycle states based on the alignment of the three individual Supertrend lines (ST1/ST2/ST3), phase age, and compression trend. Expansion: all three lines aligned with low compression - the cleanest trend state. Building: ST2 and ST3 aligned but phase is young, still establishing. Mature: an established trend with moderate compression. Weakening: all lines aligned but compression is rising, or ST1 is diverging from ST2/ST3 - potential early warning of trend exhaustion. Flip: a recent direction change where ST2/ST3 are not yet fully aligned.

Persistence measures how often an ST2 directional flip is still valid after a set number of trading days. Across our full universe, 86.4% of bullish ST2 flips are still bullish after 5 trading days, and 82.7% of bearish flips are still bearish. High persistence means the signal tends to hold. Individual symbol persistence figures are shown in the Signal Quality block of each symbol detail page.

A whipsaw occurs when ST2 flips direction and reverses again within 5 trading days - a false signal. Across all 230 tracked symbols, 16.4% of all ST2 flips are whipsaws. The useful comparison is by the state of ST3 on the day of the flip: when ST3 already pointed in the new direction (35% of all flips), 17.0% turned out to be whipsaws; when ST3 still pointed the other way, 16.1%.

The site splits every chart into uptrends, downtrends and phases without a trend (sideways or choppy), read from the middle and the slow Supertrend line. For the four index ETFs (DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM) since 1990 there were 660 completed phases without a trend. Half of them were over within 19 trading days; 61% ended in an uptrend and 39% in a downtrend. A phase that has already lasted 20 days is a different case: of the 327 phases that got that old, half ended within 10 more trading days and a quarter lasted more than 22 more; 61% ended in an uptrend. The page shows this for the current age of each index and, in the symbol search, for every tracked symbol from its own history.

From the middle and the slow Supertrend line (ST2, ST3), the way a chart is read at a glance. Both green: uptrend, and the lowest green line under the price is the support level. Both red: downtrend, the highest red line above the price is the resistance level. One green and one red: price sits between the two lines - choppy, no trend to commit to. A level that has stayed within 1 ATR of its current value for 15 trading days or more is flat - it does not matter which of the two lines carries it. Sideways means a flat support or resistance level. For the four index ETFs (DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM) since 1990, the average 20-day return was +0.71% on days with a rising support level, +0.57% with a flat support level and +0.52% in a choppy market, against +0.77% for all days. The average largest 20-day drawdown was -2.6%, -2.8% and -3.6%, against -3.3%. The full table is on the page.

The feed reports each day as it looked on that day. The page looks back: a flat level is only recognised after 15 trading days, but then counts from its first day, and a phase shorter than 3 days is added to the phase before it. A short dip that the feed reported as a downtrend can therefore later be part of a sideways phase on the page, and the day counts can differ. The feed tells you what changed today; the page tells you which phase the market is in and how old it is.

supertrendresearch.com reads the state of the market from three Supertrend lines and compares it with history. It is a market view, not a signal service. It is an independent research tool built and maintained by a private trader with over 35 years of experience in financial markets and market data infrastructure. Not affiliated with any broker, data vendor, or financial institution.

End-of-day OHLCV price data (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) is sourced from publicly available market data providers including Yahoo Finance and other free data sources. All Supertrend calculations, phase detection, compression analysis, and historical statistics are computed independently using proprietary algorithms. No AI is used in signal generation. End-of-day data is collected and processed after midnight UTC, following US market close.

Survivorship bias: All historical statistics apply today's symbol list to the whole history. Companies that were delisted or acquired are missing, and today's universe contains stocks that are tracked because they became important.

Disclaimer: Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk.

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